Imagine this lead sentence in a news story on Nov. 7, 2012: “Barack Obama enters his second term disliked by the majority of voters, distrusted by his Democratic colleagues in Congress and facing a budget catastrophe with few painless solutions.”

At this stage, most of us Democrats would take it. President Obama heads toward 2012 facing extreme headwinds. Current economic conditions (GDP growth and unemployment) are worse than that faced by any recent presidential incumbent. Satisfaction with the direction of the country is at perilous lows, and his job approval numbers are the lowest of his presidency.

Like most campaigns, Mr. Obama’s team will be looking for a past road map to build their strategy. Some are suggesting that his re-election might look like George W. Bush’s, but this won’t work. The former president went into his re-election campaign with unique advantages stemming from 9/11, and successfully framed the election as being about national security—something Mr. Obama would have difficulty pulling off. What’s more, Mr. Bush’s job approval rating rarely fell below 45% before his re-election. Mr. Obama’s approval rating was below 40% in Gallup’s polling in the past two weeks.

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