Click to read our full analysis, and see detailed results!

Please contact Doug Usher with questions or comments: doug.usher@purplestrategies.com, or 703-548-7877.

Click to read our full analysis, and see detailed results!

Please contact Doug Usher with questions or comments: doug.usher@purplestrategies.com, or 703-548-7877.

In our latest edition, President Obama remains in perilous position compared to other incumbents. At the same time, trends across nearly all measures are in his favor. Take a look at the Purple Election Perspective, and judge for yourself!

A “what if” test with Jeb Bush shows him performing at the same level in a general election test as Romney and Gingrich, but with lower unfavorables among Republicans.

A close look at Iowa indicates that the Republican campaign may be at least temporarily turning off swing state voters as negative ad traffic hits the airwaves.

Click to read our full analysis, and see detailed results!

Please contact Doug Usher with questions or comments: doug.usher@purplestrategies.com, or 703-548-7877.

We also provide new insight into the Health Care Law at the Supreme Court, and Purple America’s beliefs about the Supercommittee.

Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that have decided presidential elections for the past dozen years, and will do so again in 2012: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Since 1996, nine of these states swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Three states (MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by 3 points or less at least once since 2000. The voters in these states have held the presidential election balance for the past dozen years, and will continue to do so in 2012.

Click here to get the PurplePoll and get focused on 2012.

Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that have decided presidential elections for the past dozen years, and will do so again in 2012: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Eight of these dozen states won by President Obama in 2008 have swung between Republican and Democratic candidates since 1996. The four others (NH, MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by three points or less at least once since 2000.

Click here to get the PurplePoll and get focused on 2012.

In our first edition, we focus on critical economic and opinion data points that will set the national political terrain for the upcoming cycle. We also add essential context – comparison data for other incumbents over the last eight cycles.

At this early stage, President Obama finds himself facing an extremely difficult political environment as he ramps up his re-election campaign. Nearly every indicator – economic and opinion – puts him in a poor position relative to other successful incumbents.

It is important to emphasize that it is premature to make predictions – and as you’ll see in this month’s Purple Election Perspective, other incumbents have seen dramatic improvements during their re-election year.

Enjoy, and let us know if you have any thoughts or comments (doug.usher@purplestrategies.com).

The word cloud below visualizes the 50 most prominent words from the conversations. Interestingly enough, all cell providers showed up as people complained that they had no service:

With people feeling the shaking as far west as Colorado, it’s not surprising the quake was trending on the West Coast, and, if our office was any indication, Californians were not impressed with a 5.9. The following image courtesy of Trendsmap.com shows the national reach:

Follow Brad for more social media updates at @BradEngle

*8/23/11 9:40PM NOTE: As stated above, this post only analyzes public conversations. As a result, a significant portion of Facebook posts are not included because of privacy settings.

Republicans can point to the Gallup poll showing that just 22% of Americans want their member of Congress to raise the debt ceiling at all.  Democrats can respond by saying that a 46% plurality of Americans would blame Republicans if the government defaults (35% blame Obama).

Here’s the problem: this polling may not reflect anything meaningful in public opinion.

Poll questions are most accurate (and predictive) when respondents…

1)   …understand the subject asked of them.

2)   …have an opinion about the subject.

3)   …are asked about the opinion they currently hold.

Most of the questions about the debt limit ignore at least two of these three basic principals.

Voters know little about the debt ceiling.  To the extent they do give an opinion, most are offering general thoughts about deficits, rather than about the real question at hand.

“Blame” questions are also problematic, as people are often unable to predict their own reaction to actual future events.  Today, voters may think that when this is over they will blame one side or the other.  But the process has yet to play out, and the ramifications of action (or inaction) remain unpredictable.

Polling and legislating sometimes mix well.  In this case, not so much.